Who Is the Next Hegemonic Power?

Sinking of a Boat Giving Birth to a New Boat

Obviously, the Postwar Period’s hegemonic stabiliser is the United States of America. Dominating the international economy with its currency, even if it has a debt, it can pay off the debt by printing money. It has the most powerful and technologically advanced military with a wide-reaching diplomatic network influencing international relations. Therefore, it is adamantine to topple such a superpower; however, the boat started to sink with the Vietnam War. The United States has lost to a much smaller and less powerful country causing loss of confidence in American military abilities. With its decline, a future hegemon from eastern Asia started to show itself by 1978. 

Rapid Economic Growth of a Possible Hegemon

China, officially the People’s Republic of China, began to open up and reform its economy in 1978 by having an average GDP growth over 9 percent per year; approximately 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. The architect of China’s economic growth Deng Xiaoping was a supporter of reforming the economy before the political system. By giving to farmers quotas of crops that had to be yielded to the government and allowing any surplus being sold in the private market, he incentivized more agriculture being produced. Chinese agricultural output increased 8 to 10 percent each year from 1978 to 1984. Special economic zones such as Shenzhen and Zhuhai were established to attract foreign investment and boost exports in 1980. These were significant in drawing foreign capital and advanced technologies, fueling China’s industrialisation and integration into the economy. Many American companies shifted their production to China as its low production cost and increase in exports have widened its trade deficit with the United States. The manufacturing sector began to take off, surpassing the industrial powers one by one, overtaking the United States in 2010 to become the first industrial powerhouse. Becoming a member of the WTO (World Trade Organization) on 11 December 200, improved its role in global trade expediting economic growth. During the 2008 global economic crisis, the US and other Western economies were severely affected while China’s economic growth continued. This has increased its economic power and strengthened its role in the global financial system. Overall, the rapid economic growth of it is a major reason 

why China is becoming a future hegemon.

China overtakes the United States by 5.2% increase alongside the US having a 2.5% in GDP growth in 2023. Years of having the first place in GDP growth, China demonstrates its economic power to be the future hegemon. Economic growth usually means an increased production capacity and export capabilities. China has the most exports with $3.73 trillions which makes it a major centre for global trade can exert significant influence over international economic policies. China having the first place in GDP growth and exports despite the United States implies its great power in international trade. 

Future Global Leader of Technology 

There is rapid progress in the technology sector regarding artificial intelligence and 5G in China. It is roughly 75 percent as advanced in innovation and advanced industry production as the United States. If the growth continues relatively apace, China will surpass the United States by 2025 and become the global technology leader. It would be a valuable step at the path of being the possible hegemony as the 21st century world is known with its unexpectedly marvellous technological development. 

Is population a Pro or Con for a Probable Hegemon?

If China is the case for a possible hegemon, the huge population aspect (some might call it a ‘problem’) of it has to be examined. China is well-known for its excessive amount of total population, having a 1.41 billion population in 2023. Because people stand for the labour force, the population is beneficial for production and innovation, helping China to stand out from the rest. Nevertheless, huge population size results in less GDP per capita ($12,614.1 in China, $81,695.2 in USA) and higher unemployment (4.7% in China, 3.6% in USA). These data prove that China has a problem with its population but, indeed, the government establishes a policy such that all Chinese couples are allowed to have only two children. Now, the population growth is lower than the United States; however, the population size has yet not fluctuated in China. 

Wake Up, America!

Considering GDP growth, export rates, technology advancements, and population size, there is an outcome that China would be the future hegemon succeeding the United States of America. 

Resources

• Butler, A. J. (2024, January 18). 21st Century Chinese Hegemony in the International System. Modern Diplomacy. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/18/21st-century-chinese-hegemony-in-the-international-system/

• (n.d.). World Bank Open Data | Data. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://data.worldbank.org/

• García, G. (n.d.). The Observatory of Economic Complexity. OEC World. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://oec.world/en

• Impact of the war - The Vietnam War - National 5 History Revision. (n.d.). BBC. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7bkqt/revision/6

• Dorn, J. A. (2023, October 10). China's Post-1978 Economic Development and Entry into the Global Trading System. Cato Institute. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://www.cato.org/publications/chinas-post-1978-economic-development-entry-global-trading-system#plan-market-overview

• Wen, Y. (2016, April 11). China's Rise from Agrarian Society to Industrial Power. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved July 14, 2024, from https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/april-2016/chinas-rapid-rise-from-backward-agrarian-society-to-industrial-powerhouse-in-just-35-years